Forecasting Elections Using Expert Surveys: An Application to U. S. Presidential Elections

Prior research offers a mixed view of the value of expert surveys for long-term election forecasts. On the positive side, experts have more information about the candidates and issues than voters do. On the negative side, experts all have access to the same information. Based on prior literature and on our experiences with the 2004 presidential election and the 2008 campaign so far, we have reason to believe that a simple expert survey (the Nominal Group Technique) is preferable to Delphi. Our survey of experts in American politics was quite accurate in the 2004 election. Following the same procedure, we have assembled a new panel of experts to forecast the 2008 presidential election. Here we report the results of the first survey, and compare our experts' forecasts with predictions by the Iowa Electronic Market. Comments Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September 2007. This presentation is available at ScholarlyCommons: http://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/137 Forecasting Elections Using Expert Surveys: An Application to U. S. Presidential Elections Randall J. Jones, Jr., University of Central Oklahoma [email protected] J. Scott Armstrong, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Alfred G. Cuzán, The University of West Florida Updated on October 2, 2007